Outlook scenarios and modeling of competitiveness of Bulgarian oilseed industry

Bozhidar Ivanov

Резюме: The aim of the analysis is to elaborate the feasibility scenarios of the competitiveness of oilseed industry in Bulgaria extended until 2030. The scenario modeling is based on the competitiveness indices estimated over the period 2007 – 2021. Competitiveness is deemed and recognized as a result achieved regarding production and value outcomes. The projected scenarios are based on econometric modeling, in which projections are made for all variables involved in the calculation of the production, value and overall competitiveness index. The research covers the main oilseeds – sunflower, rapeseed and soybean, which consist of a dominant portion not only in production side but as well as consumption part of oilseed commodities in the country. In historical term, the production and competitiveness of oilseed industry in Bulgaria stands for a sound level defined as a very high performance per capita compared to other world main producers and competitors. The applied scenario approach is constructed in modeling all variables in the competitiveness indices calculation through autoregression type and trend variation equations. The status-quo scenarios indicate the competitiveness by 2030 for the oilseed crops will remain at the high frontiers even though a possible slight decline. The growing import of oilseed in the recent years might go on due to expansion of crushing oilseed industry in Bulgaria, which may lead to upward local consumption of oilseed and aftermaths a lower production index competitiveness. It can be underlined that very high competitiveness of the oilseed production in Bulgaria in the next years is to great extent originated in the favorably settled farming in those crops and major factor, which is seen to disturb this situation is thought to be the regulatory environment in the EU, especially in terms of the Green Deal.

Ключови думи: competitiveness; modeling; oilseed crops; projections; scenario

Цитиране: Ivanov, B. (2025). Outlook scenarios and modeling of competitiveness of Bulgarian oilseed industry. Bulgarian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Management, 70(2), 3-14 (BG).

DOI: https://doi.org/10.61308/RNCL3482

Дата на публикуване: 2025-06-30