Assessment and forecast of consumer behavior on the rural households by 2020

Minka Anastassova-Chopeva

Abstract: Improving the quality of life on rural households is one of the main goals of Development Programme (RDP) in the programming period 2014–2020. The study of patterns of consumer behavior on rural residents is directly relevant to the achievement of this objective. The article presents some scientific results of the consumption level and structure on the rural households by 2012 and expected their changes to 2020. The survey is part on a research project “Quantifcation of the economic and social effects on income support and rural development in the period 2014–2020” with leader1 Prof. R. Popov (2013–2014). The methods on structural dynamic analysis, comparative analysis and forecasting approach on ARIMA modeling are attached. Taken into account the specificities of consumption on the rural households such established habits and traditions in consumer behavior. Forecast of the user pattern on rural households was developed on time series covering the period 2000–2012. The share of each species cash expense in the total expenditures structure is predicted to 2020. For the purposes of the study officially published data from NSI for the level and structure on consumer spending per average a rural household during 2000–2012 are used. The main conclusion of the study is the standard of living on rural households will remain low by 2020. Despite the expected changes in individual groups of expenditure, they will not lead to a significant change in the overall pattern of consumer behavior on the rural residents. It can be assumed that will be achieved more improved structure on consumption given the expected decline, albeit insignificant share of the cost of food. However, in view of the predicted increase in the share of expenditure on housing, water and other
household needs and especially the share of tax payments can be concluded that in the near future rural households will continue to suffer the burden of price
and tax policy.

Keywords: ARIMA-models; consumption; evaluation; forecast; rural households

Date published: 2017-10-04