The New Challenges to the World Agriculture in the Beginning of the Second Decade of the 21 st Century

R. Popov

Abstract: The purpose of this article is to analyze the impact of the driving forces of the changes in the world food system in a medium and long term and on this basis to identify and motivate the main priorities of development of the world agriculture. Ultimately, the chief challenge is to build up a model of development, to allow the feeding of the population at a sustainable utilization of the natural resources. The factors of changes and the analysis of their impact are grouped into several points: increase of the population and income growth, where the conclusion is that under certain conditions the agriculture is capable to meet the increased demand; changes in the structure of demand as s result of the incomes increase per capita: the new organization of the world food system; the climatic changes; increasing pressure upon the main resources of the agricultural production; increased significance of values and ethical social understandings. The assessment of the aggregated impact of the numbered factors shows that in a long term (until 2050), could be expected a trend of price increase of the agricultural products, as meanwhile under certain conditions the production will be able to meet the increased demand. Based on this conclusion are formulated and motivated the priorities for development of the world food system and the agriculture as a main part of it: to provide a sustainable production of sufficient food quantities for the Earth’s population; overcoming the instability of the food system and the agricultural production; a policy assessment of the multifunctional role of agriculture for the development of the rural regions; the climatic changes and the related with them measures for decrease of the greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural origin, as the adaptation of the sector to the new production conditions; the ecologic dimensions of the farming activities, requiring a higher food output in a global scale, without a considerable area increase and within a decreasing negative impact on the environment; and at a last place, but not in significance – the social aspects of the consequences of the development and policy, concerning the injustice of commercial relationships, the access to agricultural underpinning, and the effect on incomes, the regional development, the political process, the environment, etc.

Keywords: driving forces; priorities of development; world food system and agriculture

Date published: 2018-01-31