Some trends of demographic potential in Bulgarian villages by 2020 at national and Regional level

M. ANASTASSOVA-CHOPEVA

Abstract: The article presents the main results and conclusions of the demographic development forecast in the villages by 2020 on national and regional level (planning areas). The method of decomposition of the population as the base year 2010 is attached. According to the forecast results total rural population in 2020 is expected to fall below 2 million people. Moreover, over the next 10 years certainly nearly 700 villages will be covered by a full depopulation and approximately one fifth by partial depopulation. The aging process will continue as harder it will be pronounced for women and will be followed by the imbalance between the sexes in different age groups. The expected reduction of the rural population is mainly due to the high negative natural population growth in rural areas, the importance of which is nearly nine times greater than the migration factor. Among the younger troops the importance of migration is sufficiently pronounced especially in women. Projected trends in demographic processes in the villages will be found in all planning regions but they will occur at different rates. In order outlined alarming forecast of the demographic potential development in rural areas by 2020 not realize some suggestions related to the absorption of the EU funds for the implementation of measures in the Programme for Rural Development (PRD) are made. In addition, changes in the overall state demographic policy aimed at creating incentives for high fertility and adequate childcare are needed.

Keywords: demographic forecast; population growth and migration; positive age groups; rural population; trends

Date published: 2018-04-03